Survivorship Bias: Missing Planes and Missing Data

By: Yisroel Picker

"Success is not a reliable teacher." 

— Bill Gates

What if the advice you’re receiving from your favorite "hustle god"/influencer is actually a recipe for disaster? People tend to assume that if they copy the habits of the world’s most successful people, they will inevitably reach the same destination. Unfortunately, this logic ignores the fact that these success stories are the exception, not the rule. For every entrepreneur who thrived under extreme stress, there are thousands of others who collapsed under the weight of it. People often make a critical error in how they evaluate performance - a mistake that involves looking exclusively at the evidence of success while ignoring the evidence of failure. 

To see why this approach is so dangerous, we have to look back at a classic example of how data we’re provided can lead to fatal conclusions.

Misplaced Focus: The Damaged Wings

A famous aviation story from the second world war can help us understand how insufficient data can mislead people. The military felt they were losing too many planes, leading them to mandate extra armor to help the pilots survive enemy fire. The military examined the planes returning from missions and saw they were riddled with bullet holes in the wings and tail. Therefore, they decided to add armor to those specific spots.

However, mathematician Abraham Wald realized the military was making a fatal error. They were only looking at the "survivors”. The holes in the returning planes showed where a plane could be hit and still make it home. The planes that were hit in other areas, such as the engine or the cockpit never came back to be studied.

The Lesson: If you want to know how to survive, don't just look at the survivors, look at the failures.

The "Hustle Culture" Trap

In the world of personal development, people often fall into the same trap. They look at the "bullet holes" of successful entrepreneurs (their sleepless nights and high-stress lifestyles) and think that's what one needs to emulate. 

However, notice what one misses by only studying the successes:

1. The Biological Cost

"Hustle culture" can be biological suicide. Chronic overwork triggers a constant release of cortisol (the stress hormone). While cortisol is great for escaping a predator, staying in that state for years leads to:

  • Heart disease 
  • High blood pressure
  • A weakened immune system, which makes it harder for your body to fight off illnesses
  • Cognitive decline, specifically impacting the prefrontal cortex (the part of your brain responsible for making good decisions).

2. The Statistical Reality

For every Elon Musk who sleeps on a factory floor and becomes a billionaire, there are myriads of entrepreneurs who did the same and:

  • Lost their home and all their money
  • Destroyed their marriage
  • Developed chronic health conditions.
  • Simply failed due to “bad luck” (e.g. market timing)

By ignoring these "non-survivors," we overestimate our own odds of success and underestimate the risks we are taking.

Noticing Survivorship Bias in Your Own Life

To avoid falling for the "survivor" narrative, ask yourself these following questions:

  • "What does the full data set look like? People tend to only see the single outlier who made it, but how many others attempted this same journey and failed?"
  • "Did luck play a role?" Did they have a unique safety net, a specific connection, or is this simply a "right place, right time" moment that isn't being mentioned?
  • "Is this sustainable for me?" Just because a professional athlete can train 8 hours a day doesn't mean a hobbyist is capable of such intense physical activity without risking permanent injury.

Conclusion: Build Your Own Path

We have to stop treating "hustle" as a badge of honor and start seeing it for what it often is: a high-stakes gamble with our finances, family, health and happiness. When we only look at the survivors, we ignore the biological and personal wreckage left behind by those who weren’t successful. Wisdom isn't found by blindly following the loudest voice in the room; it’s found in the "denominator" - the thousands of stories we never hear. Don’t build your life on the exceptions to the rule. Build a system that honors your health, your relationships, and your unique circumstances, ensuring that your path to success doesn't become a one-way mission.